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Qual foi a avaliação do COPOM em sua última reunião sobre o cenário inflacionário global?
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Tool Calls:
  retrieve_atas_copom (4c002a48-1372-4010-8e46-4ac3a57c8585)
 Call ID: 4c002a48-1372-4010-8e46-4ac3a57c8585
  Args:
    query: Qual foi a avaliação do COPOM em sua última reunião sobre o cenário inflacionário global?
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Name: retrieve_atas_copom

1. The global environment is more adverse and uncertain due to the economic policy 
and economic outlook in the United States, mainly regarding its trade and fiscal policies 
and their effects.  
2. Therefore, the behavior and the volatility of different asset classes have been 
impacted, altering global financial conditions. This scenario requires particular caution 
from emerging market economies amid heightened geopolitical tensions.  
3. Regarding the domestic scenario, the set of indicators on economic activity has 
shown some moderation in growth, as expected, but the labor market is still showing 
strength. 
4. In recent releases, headline inflation and measures of underlying inflation remained 
above the inflation target. Inflation expectations for 2025 and 2026 collected by the 
Focus survey remained above the inflation target and stand at 5.1% and 4.4%, 
respectively. 
 
B) Scenarios and risk analysis  
5. The inflation outlook remains challenging in several dimensions. Copom assessed the 
international scenario, economic activity, aggregate demand, inflation expectations, 
and current inflation. Copom then discussed inflation projections and expectations 
before deliberating on the current decision and future communication.  
6. The global environment is more adverse and uncertain. If, on the one hand, the 
approval of certain trade agreements, along with recent inflation and economic activity 
data from the U.S., could suggest a reduction in global uncertainty, on the other hand, 
the U.S. fiscal policy – and, particularly for Brazil, the U.S. trade policy – make the outlook 
more uncertain and adverse. The increase of trade tariffs by the U.S. to  Brazil has 
significant sectoral impacts and still uncertain aggregate effects that depen d on the 
unfolding of the next steps in the negotiations and the perception of risk inherent to 
this process. The Committee is closely monitoring the potential impacts on the real

1. The global environment is more adverse and uncertain due to the economic policy 
and economic outlook in the United States, mainly regarding its trade and fiscal policies 
and their effects.  
2. Therefore, the behavior and the volatility of different asset classes have been 
impacted, altering global financial conditions. This scenario requires particular caution 
from emerging market economies amid heightened geopolitical tensions.  
3. Regarding the domestic scenario, the set of indicators on economic activity has 
shown some moderation in growth, as expected, but the labor market is still showing 
strength. 
4. In recent releases, headline inflation and measures of underlying inflation remained 
above the inflation target. Inflation expectations for 2025 and 2026 collected by the 
Focus survey remained above the inflation target and stand at 5.1% and 4.4%, 
respectively. 
 
B) Scenarios and risk analysis  
5. The inflation outlook remains challenging in several dimensions. Copom assessed the 
international scenario, economic activity, aggregate demand, inflation expectations, 
and current inflation. Copom then discussed inflation projections and expectations 
before deliberating on the current decision and future communication.  
6. The global environment is more adverse and uncertain. If, on the one hand, the 
approval of certain trade agreements, along with recent inflation and economic activity 
data from the U.S., could suggest a reduction in global uncertainty, on the other hand, 
the U.S. fiscal policy – and, particularly for Brazil, the U.S. trade policy – make the outlook 
more uncertain and adverse. The increase of trade tariffs by the U.S. to  Brazil has 
significant sectoral impacts and still uncertain aggregate effects that depen d on the 
unfolding of the next steps in the negotiations and the perception of risk inherent to 
this process. The Committee is closely monitoring the potential impacts on the real

dimensions, lags, and prospects. Part of the debate focused on the more recent 
inflation path, i n which industrial goods and food -at-home inflation no longer 
contribute to disinflation at this stage of the disinflationary process. At the same time, 
services inflation, which has greater inertia, plays a major role in the disinflationary 
dynamics at the current stage. 
14. Copom concluded by assessing that the inflation outlook has become more 
challenging, with the increase of medium -term inflation projections, even conditioned 
on a higher interest rate.  Benign surprises were noted in the recent period, but also the 
rise in projections for shorter periods, involving market prices. In the end, Copom 
unanimously concluded that a more contractionary and more cautious monetary policy 
was needed to reinforce the disinflationary dynamics. 
15. The Committee emphasizes that risks to its scenarios remain in both directions. 
Among the upside risks for the inflationary scenario and inflation expectations, it should 
be emphasized (i) a greater persistence of global inflationary pressures; and (ii) a 
stronger-than-expected resilience of services inflation due to a tighter output gap. 
Among the downside risks, it should be noted (i) a greater-than-projected deceleration 
of global economic activity; and (ii) an impact on global inflation larger than expected 
from sync hronized monetary policy tightening. The Committee judges that the 
domestic and international environments remain more uncertain, requiring greater 
caution on the conduct of monetary policy. The balance of risks was again under 
discussion. On the one hand,  it was emphasized that  the reassessment of the output 
gap had already incorporated into the central scenario  part of the upside asymmetry 
related to activity. On the other, there was a concern that the output gap remains 
resilient, and that food inflation is more persistent at the recently observed levels. After

to the inflation outlook. Copom assessed that, among the upside risks for the inflation 
outlook and inflation expectations, it should be emphasized (i) a more prolonged period 
of deanchoring of inflation expectations; (ii) a stronger -than-expected resilience of 
services inflation due to a more positive output gap; and (iii) a conjunction of inter nal 
and external economic policies with a stronger -than-expected inflationary impact, for 
example, through a persistently more depreciated currency. Among the downside risks, 
it should be noted (i) a greater -than-projected deceleration of domestic economic  
activity, impacting the inflation scenario; (ii) a steeper global slowdown stemming from 
the trade shock and the scenario of heightened uncertainty; and (iii) a reduction in 
commodity prices with disinflationary effects. 
20. Prospectively, the Committee will continue monitoring the pace of economic 
activity, which is a fundamental driver of inflation, particularly services inflation; the 
exchange rate pass -through to inflation, after a process of increased exchange rate 
volatility; and inflation expectations, which remain deanchored and are drivers of future 
inflation behavior. It was emphasized that inflationary vectors remain adverse, such as 
the economic activity resilience and labor market pressures, deanchored inflation 
expectations, and high inflation projections. This scenario prescribes a significantly 
contractionary monetary policy for a very prolonged period to ensure the convergence 
of inflation to the target. 
 
C) Discussion of the conduct of monetary policy 
21. Copom then discussed the conduct of monetary policy, considering the set of 
projections evaluated, as well as the balance of risks for prospective inflation.  
22. Following a swift and firm interest rate hike cycle, the Committee anticipates, as its 
monetary policy strategy, continuity of the interruption of the rate hiking cycle to

from emerging market economies amid escalation of the geopolitical tension.  
3. Regarding the domestic scenario, the set of indicators on economic activity and labor 
market is still exhibiting some strength, even though we observe some moderation in 
growth. 
4. In recent releases, headline inflation and measures of underlying inflation remained 
above the inflation target. Inflation expectations for 2025 and 2026 collected by the 
Focus survey remained above the inflation target and stand at 5.2% and 4.5%, 
respectively. 
 
B) Scenarios and risk analysis  
5. The inflation outlook remains challenging in several dimensions. Copom assessed the 
international scenario, economic activity, aggregate demand, inflation expectations, 
and current inflation. Copom then discussed inflation projections and expectations 
before deliberating on the current decision and future communication.  
6. The global environment has been adverse and particularly uncertain. The Committee 
assessed that there were some developments that could suggest an improvement in 
the global scenario, such as the partial reversal of tariffs, but the prevailing view 
remained that the international scenari o is still uncertain and volatile. In particular, the 
Committee continues to assess that the uncertainty shock may be significant. It is also 
unclear what the fiscal trajectory will be in the U.S., both in terms of the magnit ude of 
the stimulus and the final fiscal consolidation. Moreover, the geopolitical conflict in the 
Middle East and its potential consequences for the oil market also add uncertainty to 
the prospective external environment. This scenario has already led to changes in 
investment and consumption decisions. It is still early to conclude what the magnitude 
of the impact will be on the domestic economy. On the one hand, it seems less affected 
by the recent tariffs than other countries, but, on the other, it is impacted by an adverse 
global scenario.
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================================== Ai Message ==================================

O Copom avaliou que o cenário inflacionário global tornou-se mais desafiador, com o aumento das projeções de inflação de médio prazo, mesmo condicionado a uma taxa de juros mais alta.